Chirag Desai


CSIS’ India reform scorecard tracks 30 ‘big reforms’ since 2014

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CSIS’ India reform scorecard tracks 30 ‘big reforms’ since 2014

The Center for Strategic & International Studies has a high level scorecard tracking the Modi Government against 30 “big reforms” that would help restructure India’s economy, updated each month. CSIS indicates only 9 have seen no progress so far, with over two years to go in the current term.

For those looking for a simple and clear overview of what can be considered progress, worth a look.

[embed][indiareforms.csis.org](http://indiareforms.csis.org/)[/embed]

10.52 lakh worth of fines under RTI during FY15–16

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The Central Information Commission (CIC) looks after second appeals and complaints received by the commission with respect to the Right to Information Act, 2005.

According to the RTI Act, 2005, Section 20 (1), a fine of Rs. 250 per day up to a maximum of Rs. 25,000 pay be imposed on an Information Officer for refusing an application, not furnishing a reply within stipulated timeframes, malafidely denies the request or furnishes incorrect information.

During the FY15–16, Rs. 10,52,500 penalty was imposed, as against Rs. 7,39,000 during the previous FY. 19,25,000 was fined during FY13–14.


^1 The Right to Information Act, 2005

SC Collegium clears MoP for appointment of judges

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Dhananjay Mahapatral, reporting for The Times of India:

…the Supreme Court collegium has finalised the memorandum of procedure (MoP) for appointment of judges to constitutional courts.

Finally.

The appointment of Supreme Court judges was a heavily debated topic under previous Chief Justice T. S. Thakur, starting with the Centre’s suggestion for a National Judicial Appointments Commission (NJAC), which was struck down by the Supreme Court in October 2015.

In December 2015, a Constitutional Bench of the Supreme Court ruled that the Central Government could amend the Memorandum of Procedure for appointment of judges, in consultation with the CJI. The Bench also broadly suggested that amendments towards eligibility of judges, transparency in appointments and establishment of a secretariat to review appointment-related complaints be looked into.

A bone of contention related to the ‘national security’ clause that the Centre insisted on adding to the eligibility of judges for appointment, and the Secretariat. Progress has been swift since Chief Justice J. S. Khehar took over in January, and the new Collegium has now approved both items.

Further:

Finalisation of the MoP, which will be sent to the Centre for approval and adoption this week, raises hopes of speedy filling up of vacancies in HCs, which are operating at below 60% of their sanctioned strength.

Clearance of pending cases is a huge problem in India. Just last week, the Supreme Court also set out timelines for case hearing, ordering lower courts to dispense of cases more than five years’ old by the end of the year.

Electronic Voting Machines, a primer

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EVMs have been used in all elections in India since 2000, and began their use in Lok Sabha elections in 2004. Quite naturally, there are a few advantages to the EVMs over the traditional ballot paper usage in India. EVMs are cost-efficient, less prone to booth capture and rigging while also severely reduce polling and counting times. In fact, a Madras High Court judgement from 2005 estimates cost of printing and counting using ballots to be 30–40% of total election expenses.

The machines

An EVM comprises two units — a Ballot Unit and a Control Unit. The program used in EVMs is burnt into a one-time programmable chip so that it cannot be altered with thereafter. The machines are not networked in any way to ensure prevention of external interference. EVMs are powered by a 6V battery, and therefore do not rely on an external power source.

In 2006, newer EVMs were introduced with features such as dynamic coding between Ballot Unit and Control Unit, real-time clock, full display, and data and time stamp of each key press.

The EC has now received approval to introduce an upgrade to the EVM, dubbed the ‘M3’ which will replace all pre-2006 EVMs last used during the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. This would mean that older machines without the date-time stamp and other features introduced in 2006 will no longer be in use. The newer machines also have a digital verification system to oversee the contact between two component units, making it further tamper proof by turning the machine inoperative upon fault or change in components. 5.5 lakh M3 EVMs have already been ordered, costing Rs. 3000 crore.

During the 2017 Assembly elections, as part of a United Nations Development Program initiative, 5 countries were given briefings on the Indian electoral process, including the use of EVMs and Voter Verified Paper Audit Trail (VVPAT).

Manufacture

Two indigenous companies currently build the EVMs: Bharat Electronics Ltd. (BEL), a PSU under Ministry of Defense, and Electronics Corporation of India Ltd. (ECIL), a PSU under the Ministry of Atomic Energy.

The EC has requested approval for a third — Central Electronics Ltd. — to be added to help with production of newer M3 units, this approval is still pending.

The EC notes that various levels of testing is performed at these sites before any machines are put into production, including independent units that perform Quality Assurance of the machines. Further, manufacturers do not have information about candidates several years into the future, or what constituency or the sequence of candidates in the Ballot Unit.

Procedure

Before every election, the EC begins a series of checks¹:


Historically speaking…

Before and after EVMs were introduced, numerous committees were constituted to review their use. To start of, a technical expert committee was appointed by the GoI in 1990, headed by Prof. S. Sampath, with Prof. P. V. Indiresan, and Dr. C. Rao Kasarbada as members. In November 2010, this Committee was expanded to add two additional experts in Prof. D. K. Sharma and Prof. Rajat Moona (now Director General, C-DAC).

The courts were involved as well. The Madras High Court started by rejecting tampering allegations all the way back in 2001, followed by the Kerala High Court in 2002. In 2004, the Karnataka High Court Judge K S Rai said:

After thorough practical experimentation and research the present version of EVM is designed. This invention is undoubtedly a great achievement in the electronic and computer technology and a national pride.

A Mumbai High Court judgement was also issued in 2005.

In 2010, Hari K. Prasad² along with Alex Halderman and Rop Gonggrijp, published a study wherein they claimed to have proved that Indian EVMs were hackable.

Their paper implies that it is not a ‘hack’ of the original system using a vulnerability in software, they physically replaced one of the components with a look-alike. This look-alike was then remotely instructed to modify votes. Their second option also involved breaking into the machine between polling and counting since there is often a delay between these two events. In either case, some kind of physical access to the device was needed to perform any tampering, meaning their claims were based on procedural issues in delivering and storing EVMs, and physically replacing components. These issues are addressed by the detailed process described above, and further improved by newer digitally-encoded EVMs.

Finally, in 2013, the Supreme Court, on petition by Subramanian Swamy overturning the High Court of Delhi, ruled that the EC needed to add Voter Verifiable Paper Audit Trail (VVPAT) system to EVMs as a requirement for free and fair elections, and to add to voter confidence.

20,000 VVPATs were purchased in 2013, and 33,500 came through in 2016. The assembly elections in Goa had all 40 constituencies with VVPAT.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, VVPAT was available in 8 constituencies. The announcement of the new M3 machines by the EC is congruent with the Supreme Court verdict towards replacing all old EVMs prior to the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.


¹ Based on the process as described by the Election Commission of India.

² Hari Prasad was reportedly arrested sometime in 2010. While there is not much additional information, it is believed the reason for his arrest was not his research findings, but the fact that he had obtained an EVM and refused to reveal his source, as it did not come from the EC.


Updated (9 Apr 2017) to include additional details regarding new M3 EVMs

Ambaji Temple

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…and a little bit about Shakti Peeth

Shakti Peeth, or seat of Shakti, comprise a series of holy destinations originated when Goddess Sati’s body disintegrated into pieces and fell all over the subcontinent when Lord Shiv carried her corpse in sorrow on her death. 51 peeths are recognized around India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal, Tibet, Bhutan and Pakistan.

Out of this, 12 are considered main Shakti Peeth Tirth, namely:

Ambājī (અંબાજી, अम्बाजी) is located 185 km from Ahmedabad in Gujarat, and 45 kms from Mount Abu in Rajasthan. It is believed that the Heart of Sati Devi fell here, according to Tantra Chudamani.

Gabbar

The location where Devi Sati’s heart fell is Gabbar parvath. Gabbar also assumes significance in two main time periods in our history — during Ramayan, where Lord Ram and Laxman were told to worship Devi Ambaji at Gabbar, where he was given ‘Ajay’ arrow; and the mundan ceremony of child Lord Krishna in presence of his foster parents Nand and Yashoda.

A small temple has been built on Gabbar for darshan. For those who cannot climb to visit Gabbar parvath, a Cable car service is available with a lovely scenic view of one side of the mountain.

Cable car up to Gabbar. Source: Ambaji Temple

The temple, and the Shakti Yantra

The Shikhar of the temple is 61 ft high, at the top of which is a Dhwaj (holy long flag) and Mataji’s Trishul.

There is no idol or picture in the main temple. A convex-shaped Holy Shakti Vishwa Yantra, inscribed with figures and 51 Bijapatra (letters) and the ‘Shree’ syllable is installed such that it is visible for devotion, and cannot be photographed. Non-priests are no longer allowed in the core area around the Yantra.

The priests decorate the Shakti Yantra such that one can imagine it as an idol of Ma Amba in one of her incarnations, shown on her vahan. Depending on the day of the week, Devi ma is shown to be on a different vahan between a peacock, lion, elephant, etc. I will hopefully post the exact set the next time I’m able to visit.

About two years ago, a ‘museum’ of sorts has been setup in the temple, where the team shares a bit about the history of the temple and its importance. A replica of the yantra is also available, and it is truly amazing how different the yantra actually is, compared to what you experience in the temple itself.

Ambaji temple is one of the only places in the world where I experience true peace of mind. As a family, we do try to visit the temple at least once a year.

The gold encased Shikhar as of January 2017. Source: Ambaji Temple

Over the last few years, the temple trust has been using gold donations to the template to encash the shrine in gold. Over 30 kg of gold has been donated so far, to help with the project to to cover the Shikhar, of which 41 ft have been completed.

The internals of the shrine have also been gold encased as of my last visit.

You can donate to the temple through SBI (Gujarat > Religious Institute > Shree Arasuri Ambajimata Devasthan Trust) here.

The temple also has a Havan Shala, with one main Havan Kund and 8 smaller Havan Kund.

Festivals

Source: Ambaji Temple

Bhadarva Poonam is one of the most popular festivals for visitors to the temple. An estimated 18 — 20 lakh pedesterian pilgrims visit during the festival. Have witnessed them walking along the path to the temple for days and various pop-up rest stops that serve tea, food and rest to the pilgrims are set up by devotees. The euphoria of devotees is a sight and feeling to behold, as I was fortunate enough to a couple of years ago. Devotees arrive with their dhwaj’s and are allowed to climb to the side of the Shikhar to hoist it.

51 Shaktipeeth replica

Lookalike temples of all 51 Shakti Peeth have been created right by Gabbar hills. The project took 6 years to finish and was opened for visit in 2014, allowing devotees to experience all 51 Shakti Peeths in one place.

Timings

Ambaji temple timings are as follows:

California-based techie helping fellow expats return to India

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Mani Karthik. Source: twitter.com/manikarthik

Soumya Chatterjee, writing for The News Minute:

Karthik’s website, “Return to India Kit” is a straightforward, no-frills guide, that offers returning Indians advice on everything from how and why to get an Aadhaar card to changing postal addresses from the US to India to settling loose ends with the IRS (the US tax agency) to getting OCI cards for American-born children to finding jobs in India. Along the way, it also has resources on setting up start-ups in India, transferring wealth back to India and so on.

I’ve interacted with Mani a few times on Twitter and once in person during his past Middle-east life. This is a smart, and a lovely initiative. Credible knowledge transfer is something that deserves encouragement.

All pre-2006 EVMs to be replaced with new M3's

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Anubhuti Vishnoi, reporting for the Economic Times:

The latest avatar of the Electronic Voting Machine is called ‘M3’ and the Election Commission is looking to ramp up its production ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

EVMs were first used in 1998 so any improvement is welcome.

On technology improvements in the M3:

The M3 comes with digital verification system coded into each machine which is necessary to establish contact between its two component units. This makes it absolutely tamper proof.

Numerous reports of EVM hacks have surfaced over the years, even leading the Supreme Court to order the Voter Verifier Paper Trail (VVPT) system in 2013.

5.5 lakh new M3 EVMs have been ordered already at a cost of Rs. 3,000 crore, to replace an estimated 9 lakh M1 machines. Approval is awaited on adding a third PSU to ramp up manufacturing:

Central Electronics Ltd in Ghaziabad could soon join Bharat Electronics Ltd (BEL) and Electronics Corporation of India, sources in the EC confirmed.

Rs. 70,000 crore black money detected so far

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The Economic Times:

Deputy Chairman of the Supreme Court- appointed SIT on black money, Justice Arijit Pasayat, today said Rs 70,000 crore of black money has been unearthed so far and the sixth report on it will be submitted to the apex court in April.

Banks need to decide they want to digitise

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Rupa Subramanya, writing for ORF Online:

The data for PoS show that December 2016 saw a whopping 84 percent increase in PoS as compared to the trend and January 2017 saw a big 72 percent increase above trend. Again, while it’s true there’s a drop in absolute level, such two data point analysis misses the fact that PoS is still way above the pre-demonetisation trend.

This is part of Rupa’s ongoing research into digitisation of the Indian economy overall, including as an effect of demonetization.

As I have also said before, we are still months away from the ‘final’ picture. The general expectation, and the data seems aligned with this, is the net usage pattern, once the dust well and truly settles will be a larger digitisation of the Indian economy by more than just a few percentage points.

Bank transactions such as NEFT, IMPS are seeing double digit percentage increases, the only question to be raised is how much of this is force, and how much of it preference.

She also raises causes for concern:

…admittedly anecdotal evidence suggests that after an initial adoption of digital payments methods, some smaller merchants and traders are now reverting to cash, since the liquidity crunch has largely eased. By the same token, some consumers are now reverting to cash, which is back in ATMs.

Rupa is right in suggesting that this isn’t about trying to return to a ‘black’ economy per se, but issues like “high frequency of failed transactions, network issues and high transaction costs” are certainly making cash feel more convenient. There will also be a more general pushback out of desire to return to old habits now that the ‘inconvenience’ of being forced to use digital payments is over.

BHIM is making good strides to counter this problem (17 million downloads and transactions volumes going up), but digitisation will be well and truly home once banks decide to make it easier to do so. The latest series of bank transacation charges will only put off consumers.

Until then, cash will always feel and be the ‘cheaper’ option.

[embed]http://www.orfonline.org/expert-speaks/new-trends-in-digital-transactions/[/embed]

Discourse 2.0

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Hi all, I wanted to introduce Drishti talk, our podcast covering informative discourse around topics that matter to the Indian electorate.

To this end, I invite you to please follow our publication here with a Medium account or on Twitter if you prefer. Tell us your topics of interest, or topics you have expertise on and would like a platform to share.

We think there are enough political debates — particularly shouting matches — out there, and our focus is on informing the Indian voter by puttings facts and direction in context and trying to understand real outcomes.

The general format will be free-flowing conversation (30–45 minutes long) that is both constructive and positive around the India story and hopefully sensitive topics that are lacking informative discussion.

You can listen to our podcast using:

I look forward to your feedback, and thoughts on our podcasts as well as the topics we discuss. Together, we can take many steps forward. It is time.

The Aadhaar ‘breach’

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Suranjana Roy, reporting for LiveMint:

The UIDAI filed a police complaint on 15 February against Axis Bank Ltd, business correspondent Suvidhaa Infoserve and e-sign provider eMudhra, alleging they had attempted unauthorized authentication and impersonation by illegally storing Aadhaar biometrics.

In terms of details:

The breach was noticed after one individual performed 397 biometric transactions between 14 July 2016 and 19 February 2017. Of these, 194 transactions were performed through Axis Bank, 112 through eMudhra and 91 through Suvidhaa Infoserve.

In a statement issued by the UIDAI, they said:

With reference to an incident of misuse of biometrics reported in a newspaper, UIDAI said that it is an isolated case of an employee working with a bank’s Business Correspondent’s company making an attempt to misuse his own biometrics which was detected by UIDAI internal security system and subsequently actions under the Aadhaar Act have been initiated.

It looks like an employee working within the Aadhaar framework played with the data (the UIDAI says it was his own data), and that it was UIDAI that flagged the issue and filed a criminal case against the parties involved. In technical terms, the Aadhaar database was not hacked or breached, but human access of the platform was misused. Moreover, it is the important to note that it is the UIDAI’s own systems that eventually picked up on this misuse.

But it does raise some of the larger points the opponents of Aadhaar keep highlighting — trusting any entity with data, particularly biometric data, is unsafe by definition. There is though, the point wherein a unique identity system in a country like India where benefits, subsidies and other services are rampant and untraceable, having a unique, two-step verifiable method to verify citizens’ access to schemes, and rooting out corruption has already brought about numerous benefits.

I’d love to have a more detailed debate on Aadhaar, one covering the Act, the change in its provisions in March 2016, and the larger point of making where to take Aadhaar in India — including how it is administered/delivered, privacy regulations, and more. Please comment if this is something you’d be interested in doing, and we’ll see how we can give this discussion some shape.

One final tidbit:

There has been no incident of misuse of Aadhaar biometrics leading to identity theft and financial loss during the last five years when more than 400 crore Aadhaar authentication transactions have taken place, according to Unique Identification Authority of India (UIDAI).

Notwithstanding the population of India, that is still a lot of transactions.

India plans special farms, infrastructure for export to UAE

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Indrani Bagchil, reporting for Times of India:

As a first step, India is working on what is called a “farm-to-port” project, said Amar Sinha, secretary in ministry of external affairs.
This would be something similar to a special economic zone but in the style of a corporatised farm, where crops would be grown keeping a specific UAE market in mind, with dedicated logistics infrastructure all the way to the port.

Interesting. The UAE relies heavily on import to cater to its foodstuff needs, and is also a logistics hub in the region. This would mean a ‘dedicated’ farming grounds for the UAE population — an area they are limited in due to soil conditions.

Additionally:

India and the Gulf nations, Sinha said, are coordinating their websites and databases to protect expat labour, so Indian workers travelling to the GCC countries don’t get duped by exploitative agents or employers, as has been the case in several countries, notably Saudi Arabia.

This would probably go down as a substantive reform for Indian labour in the years to come.

‘It wasn’t just DeMo’

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R Jagannathan, writing for Swarajya:

Well, my advice to both sides is chill. There is no need to garland or shoot the CSO. The higher growth number does not necessarily validate DeMo. At best, we can say that DeMo was a minor disruption compared to the bigger disruptions happening around the world. As for detractors, they will get ample opportunities to pin the slowdown blame on DeMo, since 2016–17 has anyway seen a slowdown in growth relative to the year before.

Ah, but we don’t know how to chill these days, do we? Or wait until we have enough quantifiable data to comment on something as large as demonetization, instead basing it on one statistic, either way, without establishing context.

In other words, the deceleration due to DeMo itself may be marginal, but the broader slowdown relative to the last financial year is sharper.

Another case where macro-context is important when judging what economic statistics reveal. Growth was not at the same levels this year compared to last year in any event, and even without demonetization, an expectation of downturn in overall growth was to be expected. The point is, can we attribute the entire 0.4% drop from the previous quarter to demonetization? Jagannathan postulates, and I agree, that’s a no.

The reality is that in a world of multiple disruptions there can be no normal level of growth for anybody.

In Macroeconomics 101, right up in Chapter 1, one of the earliest lessons was that concurrency of two events does not imply causality. Economics is a complex ‘sport’, convoluted enough to stump even seasoned professionals.


The above data averages show that the basic trajectory of India’s growth was probably in the 5–6 per cent range for a very long time, both pre- and post-reform. The UPA period was an aberration, and high growth was driven by extremely favourable global conditions and by harvesting the fruits of reform sown during the Atal Behari Vajpayee period.

This is good analysis, and telling when viewed through a larger spectrum (going back all the way to 1985). Our growth pattern has roughly stayed within the same bounds.

Regardless of whether you measure GDP the old way or the new, we are still to recover fully from the self-inflicted wounds of the UPA era.

Hurts.


The lessons for the Modi government are this:
One, keep plugging away at ease of doing business and reforming economic administration. Don’t obsess about the GDP growth rate, or celebrate some good numbers too soon.

Agree. Think a good GDP outcome highlights the resilience of the Indian economy — against both global headwinds and internal disruptions, including demonetization. There are positive signals, such as higher private consumption growth, or the auto industry — widely believed to be a large struggler post November — reporting higher domestic sales, and know Government collections are expected to go up via collections from both a wider tax base and the final payment of the Income Declaration Scheme 2016 come September 2017. But global conditions, and internal factors such as job slowdowns will need to be navigated.

Two, big bang and incremental growth are not opposites. When the condition is ripe, go for big bang (GST is one example); when they are not, keep pushing small doses of reform where you can.

No comment on the advice here, except that I think the Government has done this one thing absolutely right since coming to power. There is scope for deeper analysis on whether every reform was successful or not, but the fact that incremental and big bang reforms have been pursued hand in hand since May 2014 will be hard to argue against.

Three, get states into the act. The centre cannot be the driving force of the economy. Reforms must touch states, and they hold the key to faster growth.

Again, some positive moves have already happened, along with the change of revenue sharing, where they’re steadily increasing revenue sharing with states. Obviously, just the funds aren’t enough, and State initiatives that extend Central initiatives where concurrent control exists have to be strengthened and audited.

And four, forget about what is our potential rate of growth. We can only discover that by hindsight. In an unstable world, no growth outcome is likely to mirror our expectations. Economic forecasting is no better than astrology. We must negotiate growth in the fog generated by disruptive forces. This is why we got our DeMo forecasts wrong, for global disruptions are DeMo raised to the power of 10.
But if you still want a number, I would say India’s growth average will be in the 6–7 per cent range in the coming decade.

I agree with just about everything in this post, except for the prediction numbers. My range would be 7–8 per cent, starting FY2019–20; we can expect the trend to be clear by the end of FY2018–19.

Explaining Q3 high private consumption growth

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Arvind Virmani, former CEA (2007–09) writes:

(1) Sales which had happened during April-October but had not been declared, brought on the books.
(2) Artificial Sales receipts created to show accumulated cash as earned income to be able to safely deposit in bank.

Evidence of (2) in entirely anecdotal at this point, so there is little to estimate really what/how much of this contributes to the growth bump. However, whether successful or not in ‘bypassing’ an Income Tax notice, the revenue is on the books and part of the formal economy now.

(3) Temporary shift of consumer demand from unorganized to organized (taxed) sector so as to able to use cheque she or digital payments based on bank saving , as unavailable.
(4) Temporary shift in production from cash strapped unorganized sector to organized/tax paying sector operating on cheque & formal credit

As Virmani himself mentions, both these factors repeating themselves will depend on how much of this shifts back to the ‘unorganized’ sector again as cash returns to the economy. While examples of this is still anecdotal as well, I expect a large number within the unorganized sector will choose to move into the organized framework, so the overall trend line will stay steady.

Additionally, the gains of demonetization starting to prop up growth via expanding the formal accounted economy is starting to show its weight in numbers.

India’s last quarter GDP settles at 7%

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Rajesh Kumar Singh, reporting for Reuters:

Annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the October-December period came in at 7.0 percent, a tad slower than 7.4 percent in the previous quarter but much faster than the 6.4 percent expansion forecast by economists in a Reuters poll.

Yet another ‘economist-puzzling’ number as the Reuters’ headline reads. However, economists should notice that this is in-line with others such as consumer confidence at a 10-year high, or retail inflation hitting 5-year lows. For context, this is the first GDP number available since demonetization, and also covers the core ‘trouble’ November-December phase.

It’s obviously normal to find economists of both sides of any argument, so there is little doubt that predictions range sizably in a situation where an economic exercise of these proportions has never been carried out before (anywhere). That numerous economists don’t seem to want to acknowledge the actual numbers, or analyze the undercurrent that is behind these numbers, is on them.

Cyber Swachhta Kendra — Botnet cleaning and malware analysis Centre launched

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From The Indian Express:

“India today joined the distinguished club of countries that have malware-cleaning systems for the use of its citizens. As of now, we have 13 banks and internet service providers using this facility. With the expanding digital footprint in the country, I see a surge in start-ups in the area of cyber security by the end of the year,” said Union IT and Electronics Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad at the event here.

Another good element is the launch of Computer Emergency Response Teams (CERT-In) in the States, rather than just at the Centre.

Microsoft launches Skype lite with built in Aadhaar verification

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Anand Murali, reporting for the Factor Daily:

Skype Lite is available for download on the Android Play store. The app is only 13 MB in size and will also support local languages including Bengali, Gujarati, Hindi, Marathi, Tamil, Telugu and Urdu.
The app will also have an Aadhaar identity built in to verify accounts and Microsoft has partnered with India stack to add this feature.

Interesting.

While digitalisation has proceeded, cash has not become unimportant

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Rupa Subramanya, writing for the Observer Research Foundation:

Using data on the value of Point of Sale, Debit and Credit Card (PoS) transactions going back to April 2011, the earliest for which data is readily available, and the value of Immediate Payment Systems (IMPS) from September 2012, again the earliest for which data is available, I trace the dynamics of these two important components of digital payments.

As always, Rupa brings in elaborate research and looks at longer-term trends.

On digitalization of the economy:

It’s a no brainer that digitalisation of the economy has been underway well before demonetisation and is sure to continue post-demonetisation.

I raised a similar point about the drop in inflation. Analyses that only look at trends post-demonetization fail in many ways, particularly in understanding how demonetization was an impetus, not a sudden strategic change in the larger picture. To this point:

The crux is that those who claim that digitalisation fell in January by looking at only two or three data points completely miss the fact that this is still more than we would have had if demonetisation hadn’t occurred! The narrative of a sharp rise and then drop in digitalisation is simply misleading and based on poor data analysis. Even a cursory analysis of long term trends shows we’re still above trend, due to demonetisation.

On cash in the economy:

…while digitalisation has proceeded, cash has not become unimportant. It’s necessary to stress that this trend for cash incorporates a couple of months of data following demonetisation. If demonetisation indeed leads to less cash in the economy, we should see this elasticity fall over time.

India has been a predominantly cash economy, and that’s not just a colloquial statement. After all, 1000 and 500 Rupee notes comprised 86% of the denomination in circulation. Even the Government has been focused on the narrative of a ‘less-cash’ economy. While numbers haven’t been revealed yet by the RBI, it does seem that the final cash in circulation number will be far short of the Rs. 15.44 lakh crore that was in circulation on Nov 8.

Rupa also correctly concludes that the foot cannot be lifted off the peddle now, not for quite a while. Read on for a detailed analysis, salivating stuff for the data nerds out there.

[embed]http://www.orfonline.org/expert-speaks/india-digital-payments-cash-here-to-stay/[/embed]

Panagariya reviews Indian economy over the last 2.5 years

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Arvind Panagariya, Vice Chairman, Niti Aayog was recently at Deepak & Neera Raj Center on Indian Economic Policies at Columbia University. He reviews the economy and mentions a list of initiatives both implemented and in the works.

[embed][indianeconomy.columbia.edu/content/v...](http://indianeconomy.columbia.edu/content/video-panagariya-discusses-indian-economy-under-modi)[/embed]

Gold medalist archer appointed as coach after 3 years of selling oranges

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[embed]twitter.com/ani_news/…[/embed]

Which is rather sad. It’s little wonder that very few former sports players come back to the game, even in mainstream sports like cricket in India.

[embed][twitter.com/ani_news/...](https://twitter.com/ani_news/status/831760049324302338)[/embed]

Thankfully.

34 CAs being investigated for laundering

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The Financial Express:

Last week, the government had said it had been found that 559 beneficiaries had laundered nearly Rs 3,900 crore with the help of 54 professionals who have been identified. It had said information was shared with various agencies, including ICAI.
[embed]http://www.financialexpress.com/economy/demonetisation-narendra-modi-govt-hands-34-chartered-accountants-names-to-icai-for-money-laundering-investigation/551650/[/embed]

Pre-loaded SIM cards available to tourists with e-visa

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Launched via the Department of Tourism & Culture, BSNL will now offer tourists arriving on an e-visa the option to pick up a SIM card pre-loaded with Rs. 50 talk time, and 50 MB of data activated immediately. Tourists will have to provide BSNL with a copy of their e-visa and the first page of their passport on arrival to avail the service.

The facility was launched at Delhi’s Indira Gandhi International Airport’s T3 terminal, and will soon cover all 15 international airports.

Retail inflation lowest in 5 years

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Shailesh Andrade, reporting for Reuters:

Consumer prices rose by an annual 3.17 percent last month — their slowest pace since January 2012, when the government launched the current index series.
Economists surveyed by Reuters had expected prices to rise by 3.22 percent from a year earlier, compared with December’s 3.41 percent increase.

The article attributes the higher than expected drop to demonetization. The data, though, seems to indicate that while demonetization may have supplemented the decline, it is not the root cause — there has been a near consistent decrease in inflation since 2014, and would imply other economic and governance reasons are also playing a part. The trendline therefore makes for positive reading.

Since July 2016, which is the peak 6% seen last calendar year and 3 months pre-demonetization, it has dropped consistently month-to-month to end at 3.17% in January.

Source: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/india/inflation-cpi

Tendulkar adopts second village for transformation

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The Economic Times:

Tendulkar has sanctioned over Rs 4 crore from his MPLAD fund for development of Donja. The amount will be spent on development of a new school building, a water Supply scheme that would provide potable water to each household, concrete roads and a sewage line attached to the same, a press release stated.

Donja is in Osmanabad, Maharashta.

We haven’t heard all that much recently about the Sansad Adarsh Gram Yojana, where MPs ‘adopt’ a village and provide funds to improve conditions. Good to hear that Tendulkar, who is a Rajya Sabha MP and receives flak on his contribution in/to Parliament, moving on to a second village, after Puttamraju Kandriga (Andhra Pradesh).

No 5% service tax on healthcare services

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The Ministry of Finance:

The Central Government has clarified that there is NO proposal in the Union Budget 2017–18 to levy 5% Service Tax on Healthcare Services, as reported in certain Social Media circles.

No idea where this rumour started, but there you go.