Chirag Desai

India’s last quarter GDP settles at 7%


Rajesh Kumar Singh, reporting for Reuters:

Annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the October-December period came in at 7.0 percent, a tad slower than 7.4 percent in the previous quarter but much faster than the 6.4 percent expansion forecast by economists in a Reuters poll.

Yet another ‘economist-puzzling’ number as the Reuters’ headline reads. However, economists should notice that this is in-line with others such as consumer confidence at a 10-year high, or retail inflation hitting 5-year lows. For context, this is the first GDP number available since demonetization, and also covers the core ‘trouble’ November-December phase.

It’s obviously normal to find economists of both sides of any argument, so there is little doubt that predictions range sizably in a situation where an economic exercise of these proportions has never been carried out before (anywhere). That numerous economists don’t seem to want to acknowledge the actual numbers, or analyze the undercurrent that is behind these numbers, is on them.