Annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the October-December period came in at 7.0 percent, a tad slower than 7.4 percent in the previous quarter but much faster than the 6.4 percent expansion forecast by economists in a Reuters poll.
Yet another ‘economist-puzzling’ number as the Reuters’ headline reads. However, economists should notice that this is in-line with others such as consumer confidence at a 10-year high, or retail inflation hitting 5-year lows. For context, this is the first GDP number available since demonetization, and also covers the core ‘trouble’ November-December phase.
It’s obviously normal to find economists of both sides of any argument, so there is little doubt that predictions range sizably in a situation where an economic exercise of these proportions has never been carried out before (anywhere). That numerous economists don’t seem to want to acknowledge the actual numbers, or analyze the undercurrent that is behind these numbers, is on them.
“India today joined the distinguished club of countries that have malware-cleaning systems for the use of its citizens. As of now, we have 13 banks and internet service providers using this facility. With the expanding digital footprint in the country, I see a surge in start-ups in the area of cyber security by the end of the year,” said Union IT and Electronics Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad at the event here.
Another good element is the launch of Computer Emergency Response Teams (CERT-In) in the States, rather than just at the Centre.
Skype Lite is available for download on the Android Play store. The app is only 13 MB in size and will also support local languages including Bengali, Gujarati, Hindi, Marathi, Tamil, Telugu and Urdu.
The app will also have an Aadhaar identity built in to verify accounts and Microsoft has partnered with India stack to add this feature.
Using data on the value of Point of Sale, Debit and Credit Card (PoS) transactions going back to April 2011, the earliest for which data is readily available, and the value of Immediate Payment Systems (IMPS) from September 2012, again the earliest for which data is available, I trace the dynamics of these two important components of digital payments.
As always, Rupa brings in elaborate research and looks at longer-term trends.
On digitalization of the economy:
It’s a no brainer that digitalisation of the economy has been underway well before demonetisation and is sure to continue post-demonetisation.
I raised a similar point about the drop in inflation. Analyses that only look at trends post-demonetization fail in many ways, particularly in understanding how demonetization was an impetus, not a sudden strategic change in the larger picture. To this point:
The crux is that those who claim that digitalisation fell in January by looking at only two or three data points completely miss the fact that this is still more than we would have had if demonetisation hadn’t occurred! The narrative of a sharp rise and then drop in digitalisation is simply misleading and based on poor data analysis. Even a cursory analysis of long term trends shows we’re still above trend, due to demonetisation.
On cash in the economy:
…while digitalisation has proceeded, cash has not become unimportant. It’s necessary to stress that this trend for cash incorporates a couple of months of data following demonetisation. If demonetisation indeed leads to less cash in the economy, we should see this elasticity fall over time.
India has been a predominantly cash economy, and that’s not just a colloquial statement. After all, 1000 and 500 Rupee notes comprised 86% of the denomination in circulation. Even the Government has been focused on the narrative of a ‘less-cash’ economy. While numbers haven’t been revealed yet by the RBI, it does seem that the final cash in circulation number will be far short of the Rs. 15.44 lakh crore that was in circulation on Nov 8.
Rupa also correctly concludes that the foot cannot be lifted off the peddle now, not for quite a while. Read on for a detailed analysis, salivating stuff for the data nerds out there.
Arvind Panagariya, Vice Chairman, Niti Aayog was recently at Deepak & Neera Raj Center on Indian Economic Policies at Columbia University. He reviews the economy and mentions a list of initiatives both implemented and in the works.
Last week, the government had said it had been found that 559 beneficiaries had laundered nearly Rs 3,900 crore with the help of 54 professionals who have been identified. It had said information was shared with various agencies, including ICAI.
Launched via the Department of Tourism & Culture, BSNL will now offer tourists arriving on an e-visa the option to pick up a SIM card pre-loaded with Rs. 50 talk time, and 50 MB of data activated immediately. Tourists will have to provide BSNL with a copy of their e-visa and the first page of their passport on arrival to avail the service.
The facility was launched at Delhi’s Indira Gandhi International Airport’s T3 terminal, and will soon cover all 15 international airports.
Consumer prices rose by an annual 3.17 percent last month — their slowest pace since January 2012, when the government launched the current index series.
Economists surveyed by Reuters had expected prices to rise by 3.22 percent from a year earlier, compared with December’s 3.41 percent increase.
The article attributes the higher than expected drop to demonetization. The data, though, seems to indicate that while demonetization may have supplemented the decline, it is not the root cause — there has been a near consistent decrease in inflation since 2014, and would imply other economic and governance reasons are also playing a part. The trendline therefore makes for positive reading.
Since July 2016, which is the peak 6% seen last calendar year and 3 months pre-demonetization, it has dropped consistently month-to-month to end at 3.17% in January.
Tendulkar has sanctioned over Rs 4 crore from his MPLAD fund for development of Donja. The amount will be spent on development of a new school building, a water Supply scheme that would provide potable water to each household, concrete roads and a sewage line attached to the same, a press release stated.
Donja is in Osmanabad, Maharashta.
We haven’t heard all that much recently about the Sansad Adarsh Gram Yojana, where MPs ‘adopt’ a village and provide funds to improve conditions. Good to hear that Tendulkar, who is a Rajya Sabha MP and receives flak on his contribution in/to Parliament, moving on to a second village, after Puttamraju Kandriga (Andhra Pradesh).
The Central Government has clarified that there is NO proposal in the Union Budget 2017–18 to levy 5% Service Tax on Healthcare Services, as reported in certain Social Media circles.
No idea where this rumour started, but there you go.
The project is part of the Comprehensive Telecom Development Plan for the North-Eastern Region (NER) which was approved by the Union Cabinet in September 2014 but is yet to be rolled out.
The article unfortunately does not say why, although cites ‘external influences which are delaying the project.’
The project envisages providing 2G mobile coverage in identified uncovered areas and seamless mobile coverage along National Highways in the North-East region. Under this project 8,621 villages out of the 9,190 unconnected villages are to be covered by 6,673 towers.
Those are good numbers that will boost India’s now active ‘Act East’ mantra. That said, shouldn’t we be trying to at least go 3G with new lines? Considering the target completion date, North East citizens will finally get just 2G connectivity in 2019?
142. During the period 8 November to 30 December 2016, deposits between Rs 2 lakh and Rs 80 lakh were made in about 1.09 crore accounts with an average deposit size of Rs 5.03 lakh.
This amounts to INR5.48 lakh crores. On average though, what percentage of people who have INR 5 lakhs+ in cash have it for say a wedding or house purchase due to the requirement of cash/black money? Also, this is based on deposits made, so perhaps more than one deposit could have been made by the same person in different accounts, which will be tallied down the road.
This would imply that a decent volume of this cash could be both probed, and result in further tax collections.
Further:
Deposits of more than Rs 80 lakh were made in 1.48 lakh accounts with average deposit size of Rs 3.31 crores.
That’s another INR 4.89 lakh crore, and again, questions would be raised about availability of cash per person in excess of 3 crores.
This would imply that a good percentage of about INR 10 lakh crores of deposits (out of a total INR 15.44 lakh crores estimated to be in circulation) will result in tax collections.
The Unique Identification Authority of India (UIDAI) has shut down 12 websites and 12 mobile applications, while directing closure of 26 additional websites and applications for unauthorized Aadhar-related services including downloading Aadhar card to residents, while illegally collecting Aadhaar number from residents.
The closure is allowed under Section 38, Chapter VII of the Aadhaar Act, which provides:
“punishment … for Whoever, not being authorized by the Authority, intentinoally accesses or secures, downloads, copies or extracts any data from the Central Identities Data Repository, or stored in any removable storage medium…”
The names of the sites have not been disclosed thus far.
The UIDAI also suggests that any person losing his Aadhaar card should download an e-card from UIDAI’s official website, or visit authorized Common Service Centres or Aadhaar’s Permanent Enrollment Centers.
… Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has given banks the freedom to fix bank service charges for transactions, stated Santosh Kumar Gangwar, Minister of State in the Ministry of Finance, in Lok Sabha on Friday.
The article lists numerous additional caps set on service charges on various electronic payment methods.
